Curious text poll appears in closely contested California Assembly District 10 race

Yesterday an interesting text poll started appearing on voters’ phones for California’s 10th Assembly District race. The five-way race features two top Democratic contenders, Elk Grove City Councilmember Stephanie Nguyen, and Sacramento City Councilmember Eric Guerra.

Although the question appears to highlight negative aspects of each of the top two candidates, they could be interpreted to be weighted slightly against Nguyen. The reader who shared the screenshots is a registered Democratic voter.

Here are the questions highlighting Guerra’s negatives.

Here are the statements highlighting Nguyen negatives.

Even though both candidates had negative statements, there are some nuances.

The Guerra statements are more generic negative statements such as portraying an elected official as a freeloading-junket-taking career politician – standard claims made by both major political parties about opponents.

Conversely, the negative Nguyen statements were more specific, tying her to Sacramento Sheriff Scott Jones and former President Donald Trump. For many Democratic and independent voters, this is a toxic association.

Likewise, the survey attempts to negatively tie Nguyen to other specific Democratic hot button issues such as civil rights via the murder of George Floyd, affordable housing, and the #MeToo women’s rights question regarding her alleged failure to speak out against former Elk Grove Mayor Steve Ly who several women accused of political harassment and bullying.

Interestingly respondents were asked to rate former Elk Grove Mayor Steve Ly and Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg, who has endorsed Guerra, but not Elk Grove Mayor Bobbie Singh-Allen, who has endorsed Nguyen. Conversely, the survey asks respondents their attitudes about people tied to Nguyen, such as Sacramento County District Attorney Ann Marie Schubert and Democratic Assemblymember Jim Cooper, who some Democratic voters unfavorably view.

Coincidentally, even though a segment of Democratic voters holds a negative perception of Cooper, in a new advertisement for his Sacramento County Sheriff’s campaign, he identifies as a lifelong Democrat.
The survey also asked a battery of questions on affordable housing, education, crime, homelessness, inflation, immigrant rights, gun violence, and taxes.

Notwithstanding the negative Guerra statements, the survey could be interpreted as a soft push poll against Nguyen. Depending on the findings, if ads tying Nguyen to Jones and Trump appear from the Guerra campaign or an independent committee, it is a pretty good bet they will have originated from this and other surveys.

The survey was on the “Confirmit, A Forsta brand” and the initial text message was from McGuire Research and Californiainsights.com, a division of Goodwin Simon Strategic Research.