EGUSD Area 1 ballot returns, partisan participation indicate a tight race
Area 7 is one of the few areas in Sacramento County where Republicans have more registrants than independents which could help one candidate.
Of the three competitive races for the Elk Grove Unified School District Board of Trustees, Area 7 has the only three-candidate contest. The other two races, Area 1 and 6, have two candidates.
While trustee races are, by law, non-partisan, the race for Area 7 has partisan overtones. Three-term incumbent Carmine Forcina has received Democratic Party support in the past.
The other two candidates, Heidi Moore and Rehana Rehman, are supported by the Sacramento County Republican and Democratic parties. In addition to the party support, Moore and Rehman have received financial assistance from conservative and liberal-aligned supporters.
Information compiled by Political Data Inc. shows that 33 percent of ballots in the area have been returned, slightly higher than other precincts in Sacramento County. Unlike other EGUSD Trustee Areas with higher Democratic registration rates, Area 7 is much closer, with 14,860 Democratic Registrations, 11,436 Republican registrations, and 10,668 Independents.
It is one of the few areas in Sacramento County where Republicans have more registrants than independents. Additionally, Republicans are participating at a higher rate, which is a favorable trend for Moore's candidacy.
As for ballot returns, 5,111 Democratic ballots have been submitted, compared to 4,370 Republican and 2,699 independent votes. The challenge for Rehman is how the Democratic ballots will fall.
While Forcina has not raised money nor been actively campaigning following a late September Facebook post about his grandchild's serious injury, as the incumbent, he has name recognition after winning three terms starting in 2012. Given Forcina's previous Democratic support, even though he is not campaigning, he could drain votes from Rehman.
Conversely, Forcina has taken more conservative stances in the last couple of years than most of his trustee colleagues, as seen in the videos below. Forcina's more conservative stances could siphon votes away from Moore.
Even though Forcina is unlikely to win a fourth term, the number of Democratic, Republican, and independent voters he draws will determine whether Moore or Rehman join the board of trustees this December.
