UVA’s Sabato Crystal Ball now rates Georgia Senate races as ‘Leans Democratic’
In their final analysis of the Georgia Senate runoff race between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschell Walker, the University of Virginia’s well-regarded Center For Politics indicate the closely watched race is now Leans Democratic.
Under the direction of Political Scientist Larry Sabato, UVA’s Sabato Crystal Ball analyzes races based on several data points and offers predictions. The Walker and Warnock race was scored as a toss-up.
In their analysis, the Crystal Ball said, “With the runoff set for tomorrow, most indicators point to a Warnock advantage. In fact, considering the national environment that ultimately materialized this cycle – one where Senate Democrats exceeded expectations – it would not be shocking if Warnock ends up improving on the 51%-49% margin he notched almost two years ago.”
In 2020, the balance of the Senate was determined by two Georgia Senate races. Warnock won a two-year term, and Democrat Jon Osoff won a six-year term.
While Democrats have retained control of the Senate, the election of Warnock is highly sought as it would lessen the influence of Democratic West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who has exerted an oversized effect on the agenda of President Joe Biden. However, with the House under Republican control, much of Biden’s agenda is dead.
To this point, Sabato’s analysis noted, “Walker may also suffer from one bigger-picture factor that is out of his control: With Democrats set to retain their Senate majority regardless of Georgia’s outcome, he may have a harder time rallying Republicans.”
Walker, a one-time NFL running back, has been besieged by negative publicity. Yet, despite the negatives, Walker has maintained most of his support and has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
