Who will prevail in 5 Elk Grove races and 2 tax measures? See our guests’ predictions
After being swamped by TV ads, and mailers, we asked several regular Elk Grove News readers and Twitter followers to peer into the crystal ball and predict who they thought would win in five key Elk Grove elections and two tax measures.
The races are for Elk Grove City Council Districts 2 and 4, Sacramento County Board of Supervisors District 5, State Assembly District 10, and State Senate District 8. The Measures A in Sacramento County and E in Elk Grove.
Our panelists were asked who they thought would win the race, not necessarily who they supported. Thanks to all our panelists, and hopefully, before long, we see who wins bragging rights!
Here are the predictions presented in alphabetical order.
Randy Bekker
Measure A and E will both pass with a slim margin
Elk Grove District 2 – Rod Brewer
Rod Brewer will be declared the winner, but I think Michelle Kile comes in 2nd
Elk Grove District 4 -Sergio Robles,
Will be close
Sacramento County District 5 – Pat Hume
I think Hume wins easily
State Assembly District 10 – Stephanie Nguyen
So close that will take over a week to be declared the winner
State Senate District 10 – Dave Jones
Even though I like Ashby, Jones will be the winner in a closer race than the primary.
DJ Blutarksy
Our contributor not only makes predictions on the races, but he also takes a stab at their margins.
Sacramento County Measure A NO 52% Yes 48%
Elk Grove Measure E YES 61 % NO 39%
Elk Grove District 2 – Felipe Martin
Brewer 35%
Kile 10%
Martin 55%
Elk Grove District 4 – Sergio Robles
Bermudez 28%
Sergio Robles 62%
Sacramento County Supervisors District 5 – Hume
Hume 52%
Jaclyn Moreno 48%
State Assembly District 10 – Stephanie Nguyen
Eric Guerra 51%
Stephanie Nguyen 49%
State Senate District 8 – Angelique Ashby
Ashby 57%
Dave Jones 43%
Marieza Calip
Sacramento County Measure A – Passes
Elk Grove Measure E – Passes
Elk Grove District 2 – Rod Brewer
Rod has won three elections and has greater name recognition.
Elk Grove District 4 – Giezi Bermudez
I think his appeal to families against the bachelor Robles who just moved to the District will matter with the older voters, especially in Glenbrooke.
Sacramento County District 5 – Pat Hume
Hopefully, Phil Serna can keep Pat’s worst instincts in check, or Rich Desmond becomes a counterweight to Hume and Sue Frost.
State Assembly District 10 – Stephnie Nguyen
State Senate District 8 – Angelique Ashby
Dave Jones is the better candidate, but he has been barraged with a too much negative advertising
D.A. Gougherty
Measure A Sacramento County Measure A – Passes
Slick advertising will overwhelm the grassroots effort by a wide margin
Measure E Elk Grove – passes
As with Measure A, voters buy vague promises, in this case, about increased public safety funding.
Elk Grove District 2 – Michelle Kile
Call me a sucker for longshot bets, but Ms. Kile has a decent chance to pull the upset, albeit by the slimmest of margins.
Elk Grove District 4 – Sergio Robles
Although Mr. Bermudez can better represent the families of District 4, he entered the race too late. Hopefully Mr, Robles is his own person and not a minion of Mayor Singh-Allen as he already appeared to be headed in that direction.
Sacramento County District 5 – Pat Hume
Hume wins by a comfortable margin. With more money and the business establishment supporting his candidacy, this was Hume’s race to lose.
State Assembly District 10 – Stephanie Nguyen
The Elk Grove City Councilmember will squeak out a narrow victory. Moderate Democrats and some Republican Elk Grove voters will swing her way, which will be the difference.
State Senate District 10 – Angelique Ashby
Although Jones beat Ashby by over 10 points in the primary, the influence of independent expenditure committees in this race will swing things for Ashby. The Medicare mailers and TV ads sufficiently scare older voters, who vote at the highest percentage. That will be the difference in this race.
Norma Lee
Sacramento County Measure A – Loses
Elk Grove Measure E – Passes
Elk Grove District 2 – Rod Brewer
Elk Grove District 4 – Sergio Robles
Sacramento County District 5 – Pat Hume
State Assembly District 10 – Eric Guerra
State Senate District 8 – Dave Jones
Kind of Blue
This reader and Elk Grove News Twitter follower asked to use this pseudonym.
Sacramento County Measure A – Passes
Voters are uniformly intolerant of congestion and construction delays. Promoting sustainable development or rejecting developers benefitting from the sales tax revenue are not broad concerns to general voters and residents. The Yes on A support from law enforcement further appeals to general voters and encourages confidence.
Elk Grove Measure E – Passes
Although the economy does not support sales tax increases and voters aren’t generally supportive of taxes, voters historically support law enforcement and parks in Elk Grove and will note no organized opposition to Measure E exists. Voters likely haven’t read the impartial analysis and will not recognize that the listed expenditures are permissive, not mandatory.
Elk Grove District 2 – Rod Brewer
His name recognition and the current role will be sufficient to edge out the win, where votes will be diluted and split among the three candidates.
Elk Grove District 4 – Sergio Robles
His current planning commissioner role, past veteran status, support from major politicians, the Chamber of Commerce, and law enforcement provide him with a comprehensive and diverse list of supporters. Bermudez’s support from Nguyen, who also works with him, is insufficient and not compelling for general voters. Nguyen, herself, has marginal local identification in Elk Grove and has served subordinate to the other stronger city council members on local issues.
Sacramento County Supervisors District 5 – Pat Hume
His established local name recognition and white male demographic fits the county’s profile well. The diverse list of local recognizable leaders who support him gives him the edge. Moreno lacks name recognition outside of Elk Grove and CSD’s service area. Reflected in her vandalized signs in the outer unincorporated areas, being a progressive ethnic woman candidate is not politically competitive in a populous county district at this time.
State Assembly District 10 – Eric Guerra
Guerra has the broader, experienced Democratic political base and substantial support to win, although he is comparatively unknown in Elk Grove. Nguyen may be recognizable in Elk Grove, but the established Democratic voters in the new district know Guerra has more local experience from the Sacramento city council than Nguyen has from the Elk Grove council.
Elk Grove remains a bedroom community to Sacramento and is comparatively new in local politics and community governance. GOP voters will likely abstain in this race, and therefore they will not provide the additional votes Nguyen needs to beat Guerra.
State Senate District 8 – Dave Jones
Probably the tightest race of the night as reflected in the largest volume of multimedia advertisements. It would not be a surprise if the results are finalized later in the week.
Both candidates are politically experienced. Although Ashby has significant statewide leader support and Dr. Pan’s endorsement, it may not translate into meaningful voter support in a local election where Jones, a local and statewide-experienced white male Democrat, is the safe choice. GOP voters will likely abstain in this race, and therefore they will not provide the additional votes Ashby needs to beat Jones. Will enough independent and women voters support her to win? We’ll see.
ADDED COMMENT
It is notable that oil companies are the new political enemies in campaign ads this year. Is this a future trend or a temporary tactic to seize the current anger of rising fuel prices? Is it a partisan issue and how do the different parties address high fuel prices in their respective political strategies?
Thong Phan-Quang
Sacramento County Measure A – Passes
Wins by a wide margin plus 10 points
Elk Grove Measure E – Passes
Wins by wide a margin plus 10 points
Elk Grove District 2 – Rod Brewer and Felipe Martin in 2nd place.
Elk Grove District 4 – Sergio Robles
Sergio Robles wins by more than 10 points
Sacramento County District 5 – Pat Hume
Winner by a close margin
California Assembly District 10 – Eric Guerra
Winner by close margin
State Senate District 8 – Dave Jones
Winner by 10 points or less
David Phomavong
Elk Grove District 2 – Felipe Martin
Michelle Kile and Rod Brewer have too many skeletons in the closet
Elk Grove District 4 – Sergio Robles
Sacramento County Supervisors District 5 – Pat Hume
State Assembly District 10 – Stephanie Nguyen
State Senate District 8 – Dave Jones
The Pretender
Another EGN reader requested to use this pseudonym in honor of Jackson Browne for their predictions.
Sacramento County Measure A – Pass
This is likely to pass. However, it’s difficult to comprehend why citizens in the midst of a recession would vote for a tax increase. The timing for any tax increase is extremely poor. If you vote for this then quit complaining about grocery and gas prices.
Elk Grove Measure E – Passes
(see Measure A comment). This item seems even more dubious with the council holding the $$ strings. Pet projects (zoo), self-gratification, making the mayor and council positions full-time with benefits, padding the developer pockets, and so many other opportunities to squander this $$. From what I’m hearing, it’s still likely to pass. Anyone interested in some oceanfront property in Arizona?
Elk Grove District 2 – Michelle Kile
Thinking Brewer and Martin may cancel each other out with the splitting of the democratic vote and Kile sneaking in by a slim margin.
Elk Grove District 4 – Sergio Robles.
Robles has name recognition, but he’s been absent sooo much from the Planning Commission meeting due to his military commitments. We need someone that will be here. Bermudez should be the man.
Sacramento County Supervisor 5 – Pat Hume
Hume is likely to win going away with all the endorsements and name recognition. Not sure he’s the best person for the job as he thinks women’s rights are not a local issue. If he’s the man, he better wake up!
State Assembly District 10 – Stephanie Nguyen
Nguyen has been plastering the airwaves with ads, making up for lost time. Poor tactics by Guerra accusing Nguyen of not paying taxes. Hope it bites him in the ass.
State Senate District 8 – Angelique Ashby
I don’t like either here. It’s a toss-up which will do the least harm. Maybe it’s time for a change.
Dan Schmitt
Sacramento County Measure E – Passes
City of Elk Grove Measure A – Passes
Lynn Wheat
Never one to shy away, the former Elk Grove candidate and podcaster of More Than Three Minutes, Ms. Wheat, like Kind of Blue, has taken the opportunity to expand on her predictions.
Measure A – Loses
This will go down in defeat. Continuing to ask for more money to pay for roads has taxpayers voting no on this one.
Measure E – Passes
The City of Elk Grove did an excellent job educating the voters on this measure; the 5 separate taxpayer glossy flyers arriving in the mail along with the PAC Committee flyers comprised of Region Developers and Unions promising to keep our community safe and clean with more of your money will bring the city, developers, and unions a victory. This is the best say Yes campaign I have seen in a very long time. I look forward to discovering how the promises are fulfilled or will be “general purposes” spending.
Elk Grove District 2 – Felipe Martin
Big signs and lots of little signs with lots of campaign dollars will win this one. Follow the money. Felipe Martin will be victorious.
I am reminded of a story my uncle shared with me: My cousin wanted to run for student body council in high school. He wanted to help her develop a campaign strategy. My cousin had observed the election process and found students with the biggest signs win. So, he helped her make a couple big signs and sure enough, she won. I think of our city as one big high school with one exception: along with the big signs one needs lots of money, lots of mailers, and now some fear and smear tactics.
Elk Grove District 4 – Giezi Bernmundez
Mr. Bermud just may sneak in with a victory, as the other candidate is a recent newcomer to the district. He doesn’t have the big bucks; however, I am going to remain hopeful as there are only two running in the district.
Sacramento County District 5 – Pat Hume
This will be Hume’s victory and by how much I am not certain. One thing about the campaigns I learned a lot of personal information I did not know about the candidates as the negative flyers filled my mailbox.
State Assembly District 10 – Eric Guerra
Guerra will win this one by a slight margin. It is definitely about who plays in the Democrat party better and Guerra does that. Plus, Elk Grove regionally has not played well politically with the other cities and county.
The campaign between Ashby and Jones will be determined by how much the voters buy the fear and smear campaigns of each. I would like to imagine this one ending in a tie and they both would have to share the same seat, salary, and vote.
